Forecast

Forecast

 

 

 

 

Variance

Variance

 

COVID

 

 

Month 2

Month 5

Movement

Movement

 

Service

£'000

£'000

£'000

£'000

Explanation of Main Movements

Director of Families, Children & Learning

0

(5)

(5)

0

 

Health, SEN & Disability Services

1,965

2,037

72

217

Increasing number of high cost children's disability placements.

Education & Skills

1,953

1,211

(742)

(437)

Application of the income loss compensation grant and lower than anticipated costs of social distancing measures for home to school transport.

Children's Safeguarding & Care

(706)

(1,442)

(736)

(246)

Significantly less impact on costs, both directly and indirectly, from COVID-19 up to the end of August.

Quality Assurance & Performance

(13)

(12)

1

0

 

Further Financial Recovery Measures

(98)

(40)

58

0

Achievement of Financial Recovery Plan measures included above.

Total Families, Children & Learning

3,101

1,749

(1,352)

(466)

 

Adult Social Care

9,538

5,806

(3,732)

(746)

Due to additional NHS England funding.

S75 Sussex Partnership Foundation Trust (SPFT)

2,061

366

(1,695)

(803)

Due to additional NHS England funding.

Integrated Commissioning

2,489

4,588

2,099

1,543

Additional COVID-19 rough sleeper support costs. These are partially offset by the MHCLG grant award held centrally pending allocation.

Public Health

0

0

0

0

 

Further Financial Recovery Measures

(576)

0

576

0

 

Total Health & Adult Social Care

13,512

10,760

(2,752)

(6)

 

Transport

14,248

4,675

(9,573)

(9,447)

The positive movement is substantially the faster than forecast recovery of off-street car park income and Penalty Charge Notice income (a reduction in overspend of £2.600 million). This forecast does assume that the high proportion of income against the seasonally adjusted budget received in Summer 2020 continues for the rest of 2020/21. This is offset by higher additional spend than covered by grant funding payments to bus operators (additional transport for school pupils) of around £0.300m.  The balance is the estimate of the sales, fees and charges compensation grant due to be claimed from government.

City Environmental Management

1,900

166

(1,734)

(1,434)

The latest forecast overspend on operational staffing (mainly agency) has reduced by £0.100m compared to Month 2.   There has been a forecast improvement in the performance of the fleet management (£0.200m under budget) and an improved forecast for commercial services (£0.100m) largely due to garden waste collections income improving and waste disposal costs reducing (less waste collected). The remaining forecast underspends of £0.400m relate to additional COVID-19 waste disposal costs now being funded from the waste PFI reserve partly offset by an overspend on urgent works to manage Dutch Elm disease in the city. The balance relates to the estimate of the sales, fees and charges compensation grant due to be claimed from government.

City Development & Regeneration

941

274

(667)

(538)

The reduction in overspend is due to delays in the recruitment to the Bio Diversity officer post and a post within the Citywide Food Policy project within Sustainability together with some vacancy management savings within Planning Policy. The balance of the change is the  estimate of the sales, fees and charges compensation grant due to be claimed from government.

Culture, Tourism & Sport

7,088

2,482

(4,606)

(4,505)

The forecast for loss of income has increased for Venues based on the assumption that the Brighton Centre will remain closed until March 2021. Expenditure has been restricted to essential items only. The balance is the estimate of the sales, fees and charges compensation grant due to be claimed from government.

Property

1,680

1,677

(3)

(96)

Minor variances.

Total Economy, Environment & Culture

25,857

9,274

(16,583)

(16,020)

 

Housing General Fund

5,456

8,494

3,038

2,523

COVID-19 driven increase in costs (£2.343m) of housing rough sleepers from September to 31 March 2021. These are partially offset by the MHCLG funding award held centrally pending allocation.
There is also an increase in contracted accommodation units partially offset by a reduced contribution to the bad debt provision forecast and an underspend on the travellers service.

Libraries

475

178

(297)

0

Movement is due to the Sales, Fees & Charges Grant compensation estimate.

Communities, Equalities & Third Sector

185

185

0

0

 

Safer Communities

170

64

(106)

0

Movement is due to the Sales, Fees & Charges Grant compensation estimate.

Further Financial Recovery Measures

(2,760)

(4,193)

(1,433)

(553)

Further use of Flexible Housing Support Grant (£0.700m), reduced future PFI costs (£0.353m) and also estimated further Housing Benefit income recovery from rough sleepers to March 2021 (£0.200m).

 

Total Housing, Neighbourhoods & Communities

3,526

4,728

1,202

1,970

 

Finance (Mobo)

0

(66)

(66)

 

Vacancy management savings re vacant Executive Director post.

HR & Organisational Development (Mobo)

100

101

1

 

 

IT&D (Mobo)

0

0

0

 

 

Procurement (Mobo

0

0

0

 

 

Business Operations (Mobo)

78

97

19

 

Increase in overtime costs.

Revenues & Benefits (Mobo)

893

330

(563)

(393)

Estimated £0.341m sales, fees and charges compensation grant, £0.170m new burdens funding and £0.076m other grant funding.

Housing Benefit Subsidy

0

147

147

0

A projected surplus of £0.080m relating to the collection of overpayments of former Council Tax Benefit is offset by an overspend of £0.227m on the main subsidy budgets.

Contribution to Orbis

265

230

(35)

 

Reduced overspend projected for Orbis Partnership.

Total Finance & Resources

1,336

839

(497)

(393)

 

Corporate Policy

0

0

0

 

 

Legal Services

60

(50)

(110)

(50)

Expected income overachievement and removal of expected COVID-19 pressure.

Democratic & Civic Office Services

0

0

0

 

 

Life Events

422

200

(222)

(255)

Movement is due to the Sales, Fees & Charges Grant compensation estimate.

Performance, Improvement & Programmes

0

(6)

(6)

 

 

Communications

83

30

(53)

 

Underspends to offset COVID-19 pressures.

Further Financial Recovery Measures

0

0

0

 

 

 

 

Total Strategy, Governance & Law

565

174

(391)

(305)

 

Bulk Insurance Premia

0

0

0

0

 

Capital Financing Costs

0

(450)

(450)

 

Reduction in borrowing and Minimum Revenue Provision (MRP) due to a pause in Capital Programme offset by a reduction in interest income due to lower interest rates.

Levies & Precepts

0

0

0

0

 

Unallocated Contingency & Risk Provisions

(250)

(217)

33

0

Increased pay award costs.

Unringfenced Grants

(15,905)

(21,930)

(6,025)

(2,557)

£3.429m Next Steps Accommodation Programme Grant and £2.557m for the third tranche of COVID-19 Funding.

Other Corporate Items

4,261

2,926

(1,335)

(1,335)

Reduction in demand for PPE and amended charging arrangements offset by an increased cost of Excess Death Management.

Further Financial Recovery Measures

0

0

0

0

 

Total Corporately-held Budgets

(11,894)

(19,671)

(7,777)

(3,892)

 

Total General Fund

36,003

7,853

(28,150)

(19,112)